MY OPINION

Come Tuesday RBI is to announce credit policy. Will be any rate cut or will leave unchanged?

To my understanding inflation, growth and money supply will be key concern for interest rate determination. When inflation was peak at 14%, RBI started cutting rate. Now inflation is on south ward move. But last week it turned upside and it was only due to trucks strike and beyond this I could not see any factors which would raise inflation. So I feel this week inflation will come down.

And RBI will to some extent only use the monetary options to tackle inflation. For economy growth also needs monetary actions. In that point of view, growth is slowing down; to revive it we need credit growth, which will be increased by rate cut.

As for as money supply concern, they are in a position to increase money supply only, and not curb it. Again needs rate cuts.

By and large I feel RBI will leave rates unchanged.

MY VIEW

NIFTY LEVEL

Tomorrow, credit policy will give direction. I prefer selling at higher levels.

Res 2714, 2846

Sup 2635, 2524

TOMORROW TIPS

SBIN

SBIN posted good result. But technically to my knowledge in chart I think ascending triangle pattern is forming and breakout will be downside. And tomorrow RBI is to announce credit policy, whatever may be announcement, according to chart I feel we should sell at every rise. It may touch 926,754 levels in short term.resistant at 1134.

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A FRIENDLY TALK

Our prime minister's surgery had been completed successfully with god's blessings.We are blessed to have a scholar as out prime minister.Let us pray for his quick recovery.
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“BEST IN WORST”

“For me, businesses are like buses. You stand on a corner and you don’t like where
the first bus is going? Wait ten minutes and take another. Don’t like that one? They’ll just keep coming. There’s no end to buses or businesses.”

–SHELDON GARY ADELSON

Sheldon gary adelson is third richest person in United States. To my understanding, adelson’s strategy resembles similar to crane strategy.

Crane stands in lake like a sculpture, without any movement and watching the fishes crosses under its feet calmly. It waits patiently for a fatty fish, allowing tiny fishes to pass away. Once it finds such a fatty fish, without any mistake it hunts his prey. Crane has not only patience, but also has a clear knowledge of lakes where more number of fishes can be found.

What I understand from Sheldon gary adelson’s saying is that, for business, we need, not only patience, but also the skill to find a business from every opportunity we encounter. Business is like an art. Art needs practice. To master an art we need patience to practice. While practicing we get lot of experience. Preserving the experience develops skills. Skill leads to master an art.

Trade cycles carry plenty of opportunity with them. Only a few have the skill to find best in the worst, like warren buffet, bill gates, Sheldon gary adelson,…. Many leading internet businesses were started in period, when IT bubble burst happened. Now global economy is in recession. How many of us have ability to find best in the worst?

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YESTERDAY'S PERFORMANCE

NIFTY
As I said negative numbers outnumbers positive and technically selling would take place and that what happened.But I thought the market would touch 2524 levels today but it didn't happened.And resistant was not broken.

MY VIEW

POST SESSION
Today ,I feel, market reacted for yesterdays numbers.Spot nifty didn't touched the support level of 2656,but it had a low 2661 which is not too far from the sup level,the market breath was weak and given a downside closing, which is not good for come week.

WEEKLY VIEW
RBI credit policy and quarterly GDP data is to come next week.Technically, chart is given a downside move signal so still I prefer selling at higher levels.I feel nifty would trade around 2300 - 2800 levels in come week.

NIFTY LEVELS {27/01/09 - 30/01/09}
SUP 2524,2461,2316
RES 2846
If you have any suggestion pls take pain to drop your comments.
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YESTERDAY'S PERFORMANCE

NIFTY
I expected that SEBI's rule and results will pull the market down,but it traded flat.I gave the support level of 2656 which was achieved and bounced back.But the level 2524 was not achieved.

GOLDBEES
I told to buy this stock for hold.This stock closed below previous close.That doesn't bothers you hold for the target.

MY VIEW

POST SESSION
Today despite SEBI rule and negative inflation numbers market didn't reacted negatively.I think it is for RIL result.But in intraday it touched the support of 2656 that is not good sign for up move.

TOMORROW VIEW
RIL's results was negative , increased inflation number, reality sector valuation and stimulus package, will have their effect on tomorrow's trade.Negative news out numbers positive I feel the crucial support level 2524 will be tested tomorrow.Technically in the chart I feel selling will take place.Let's watch what happens.

TOMORROW'S TIPS

NIFTY
SUP 2656, 2524
RES 2846

If you have any suggestion pls take pain to drop your comments.
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